First Guess At Trump 2.0

 After the first round of nominees for various positions in the Executive Branch, I'd begin to wager what I think the second Trump term will look like. It's instructive but not conclusive looking at his first term, because who knows the degree to which the incompetency and failures of that first term will be addressed by the Project 2025 crowd and the unprecedented control Trump has over the GOP.

Still, it's pretty clear he's prizing loyalty over competence and kissing the ring to Beltway Clout.

I think the deportations will happen on a frightening scale, but not the degree to which Stephen Miller masturbates to at night before he crawls into his coffin to sleep. State and local officials will throw up roadblocks, and I think Trump and his Brown Shirts will relish the fight more than the need to deport all the migrant workers in California.

We will get a tariff war, which will be inflationary, but as soon as it becomes painful, I could see Trump switch course. More likely, he will use the tariffs to extract bribes from industries and countries in return for lowering tariffs on their sector.

They will make some gestural nods towards abortion bans and birth control restrictions, but Trump won't want to push this through. Same goes for ACA repeal. The point of these efforts will be to outrage people and keep their focus on these "soft" issues.

No, the big focus of Trump 2.0 will be massive, open graft. This is going to be a plutocrats' wet dream. Deregulation, cronyism, backroom dealings: this will be the hallmark of the next four years. Even if Democrats crush the next midterms, there will be no way to get around Trump's pardon powers. 

I would also look for a financial crisis to occur in the next four years, most likely in the crypto scam industry. Crypto is the latest iteration of "this time will be different" that plagues our Very Smart Financial Overlords, and I would expect a bubble and collapse - hopefully sooner rather than later. We know the pattern, Republicans wreck the economy; Democrats reform it, but don't get the credit. No reason to think that won't happen again, given how Trump seems eager to staff his government.

The next four years will be about saving what we can. In some cases, this will be institutions. In others, it will be literally your money.