Alaska

 The results of the special election in Alaska should not mean much in predicting the midterms, except for two issues.

The first is the relative quality of the candidates. Mary Peltola is a remarkable woman with deep connections and a resonant message for Alaskans. Sarah Palin is the Ur-Trump: an ignorant culture warrior and reality TV star. The fact is that there are a lot of mini-Trumps running and a lot of people like Elise Stefanik who have tied themselves tightly to him. 

The second is yet again the salience of Dobbs. Peltola did not run exclusively on abortion rights, but the contrast was clear.

Reading the Twitter feeds of Republicans and GOP organization, there is a sort of culture war flopsweat going on as the desperately try to gin up outrage over the border and crime. They desperately want to change the conversation from Dobbs, but I don't see it working beyond their base.

Maybe, just maybe, Democrats keep the House.