I and every other armchair, online general knew that Ukraine would launch a counteroffensive around Kherson in south-central Ukraine. About ten days ago, it appeared that this counteroffensive had started, and was going well, if slowly. There were real questions about whether Ukraine had the armor and manpower to exploit holes in the Russian lines.
Ukraine has, in fact, launched its more meaningful counterattack in the northeast area east of Kharkiv. They nearly encircled a large number of Russian troops who had to withdraw from Izium, which itself had been a major focus of the Russian offensive in the spring and early summer.
While Ukrainian forces have made meaningful gains around Kherson, the collapse of Russian resistance in the northeast is amazing. Because "everyone knew" that Ukraine was shaping the battlefield around Kherson, Russia must've denuded its frontlines near Kharkiv to reinforce its southwest flank.
One the worst/best things about the internet is how everyone is an expert after reading a few Wikipedia pages. What we are seeing here is a reminder that the hot-take industrial complex is just so much digital hot air. Back in February, "everyone knew" that Ukraine would fall to the Russian army and perhaps they would be able to launch a guerilla warfare campaign that might oust the invaders after several years of fighting. Instead, we got tremendous moral leadership from someone no one expected it from (Zelenskyy) and remarkable tactical and strategic leadership throughout a Ukrainian armed forces that had clearly learned a great deal since Russia invaded in 2014.
It seemed apparent to me that if Russia lost, it would lose slowly then very quickly. That's what looks to be happening now.
But then again...what do I know?
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