The Russian Duma has passed a law that will allow for a partial mobilization. It sounds like a mirror of America's "ready reserve" of veterans who have recently been discharged. It also gives more power to the state to oppress dissent and prosecute soldiers who refuse to fight. It speeds up bogus referenda in occupied Ukraine, allows Russia to recruit non-citizens into the military and tries to ramp up weapons production.
This will not win the war for them, but it could prolong it.
First of all, there is no evidence that ANY Russian troops have the professionalism and morale to win against Ukraine. However, adding more bodies to the field of combat will make it harder for Ukraine to defend in depth and mount the sort of offensives we saw this past month.
Secondly, who wants the carrot of "Russian citizenship" in return for joining the Russian army? There is a path for non-citizens to join the US military in return for citizenship, but people actually want to move to America.
Finally, the limits on Russian war production are very real and combine rampant corruption, but now include sanctions, especially on critical components like computer chips. They can buy from China (or Iran) but there is not some latent ability to create advanced weaponry on their own.
The perception was that Putin would avoid a full-scale mobilization, because it would be delegitimizing to his "special military operation" and entire regime. Now, they are going to prosecute the most popular pop star in Russia. If widespread resistance to the war breaks out, Putin is running out of cards to play.
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