Where Is Ali Khamenei?

 Since the outbreak of civil unrest across Iran, one person has been notably absent: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Khamenei is 83 years old and has been suffering from kidney disease for years. There is some whispering that he's dying, but it should be cautioned that Iran is a country especially ripe for conspiracy theories.

If Khamenei dies, the Assembly of Religious Experts will select a new Supreme Leader. The Assembly is elected every seven years, with candidates vetted by the Guardian Council and then voted on by the population. The current hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi also sits on the Assembly and was presumed to be Khamenei's heir apparent.

There are additional whispers that Raisi is reaching out to important figures in the Revolutionary Guard - the militant Islamist wing of the security state. Whether he's doing that because he feels confident that he's about to become Supreme Leader or worried about winning the election and needing to resort to coercion to take the post is an open question.

Moderate groups, led by former presidents Hassan Rouhani and the late Akbar Rafsanjani, have a majority of the seats. The current civil unrest erupting all over Iran is a direct result of Raisi's policies as president. It was Raisi who reinvigorated the "modesty rules" around women's dress. For moderates - and that term is relative when talking about Iranian clerics - the question is: Do you want an extremely unpopular figure like Raisi to be elevated to Supreme Leader? Would that further imperil the regime? Or are you confident that the Revolutionary Guard can kill enough protestors to insure the regime's survival? For those who are old enough, do you want to rule like the Shah?

The death of Khamenei would take an already volatile situation in Iran and crank it up to full volume. It could also be an accident of timing that it happens at a time when the entire population of the country is restive and enraged at hardline policies. Khamenei's death was always going to be a critical moment for the regime and the direction of Iran for the next generation. Hopefully that malevolent asshole shuffles off his mortal coil soon and Iran is able to chart a new course.