Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Sunday, September 18, 2022

What Next In Ukraine?

After reports of mass graves near Izium, it's really hard to countenance the so-called "realists" who call for some sort of negotiated ending to Russia's invasion that does not include a return to 2013 borders. Russia should be properly understood as a terrorist state.

After the remarkably successful operations to clear Kharkiv Oblast (region) of Russian invaders, it was inevitable that Ukraine would have to pause and reset. The question is - Are they capable of pulling off another "blitz" style offensive any time soon? This crowdsourced map shows some of the obstacles, namely the Oskil River, that would prevent a continuation of the Kharkiv offensive. Another option is to reinforce the slow attritive campaign around Kherson and hope to push the Russians over the Dnipro River.

The reality is that Russia has neither the manpower, the equipment nor the tactical flexibility to react quickly to Ukrainian advances. They are recruiting mercenaries from prisons. That won't end well. A Ukrainian strike at Mariupol would unwind much of the gains that Russia has made since February and force them to consider their position in Kherson regardless of the success of the Ukrainian advance there.


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