Not Buying It

I finally got a chance to read Frank Rich's new piece.  I wish I could say that having several weeks between columns has made Frank even better, but he's only gotten longer not better.

Anyway, he makes a claim comparing Perry to Goldwater and noting that after Goldwater's rout in '64, savvy Beltway types called the GOP dead for a generation, yet they stormed back and took the White House in '68 and gave us the Reagan Revolution and all the crap that came with it.

Basically, he said Perry could beat Obama.

Yeah, I guess that could happen.  Perry looks like he's been hit with a tranquilizer dart every time he opens his mouth and holds view that most Americans find scary as hell.  But, sure Frank, whatever you say.

The problem is that the pro-GOP wave that carried Nixon into the White House was based on one big thing: race.

After winning against Goldwater in '64, LBJ advanced both the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act through Congress, altering the political landscape of the South and the country.  What he did - and he knew he was doing it - was throw the South into the hands of the GOP.  First Wallace and then Nixon and then Reagan adopted the language of racial code in ways that cemented an alliance between white Southern conservatives and the GOP.

The Solid South was broken from the Democratic party, never to return.

Additionally, the cancer of Vietnam created an internecine war within the Democratic party.

In short, the Democratic party shattered under the duel stresses of racial politics and Vietnam.  I don't really see the same dynamic at play in 2012.

Rich goes on to say that you have these boutique third party movements by media elites like Freidman and Bloomberg.  Whatever.  Third parties coalesce around grass roots movements, not top down pandering.  Yes, it helps to have a charismatic figure to coalesce around, but who would THAT be?  Buyh?  Lieberman? Bloomberg?

Spare me.

No, I think we might see a third party in 2012, but it will be if Romney wins the nomination.  Some true believer, a combo of Teatard and Christianist, will jump in and ride that crazy 20% to a decent showing in the general.  Decent enough to deny Romney a win.

I'm going with Bachmann.