Friday, September 21, 2012
Look, it's not complicated. Romney got essentially no bounce out of his convention, because there was nothing there to create a bounce. Obama got a traditional bounce, because Michelle, Bill and he gave impressive, substantive speeches that were unified around common themes.
And since the convention, Romney has stepped on his junk over Libya and the 47%. There is literally no good news for Romney these days. Of course Obama is winning.
Absent a massive event that shakes the fundamentals of the campaign (and the debates don't count unless Obama shows up on meth), Obama will get re-elected. Also, Romney's crappy campaign and unpopular message delivered "inelegantly" is having an effect on down ballot races.
The GOP - again minus an "exogenous event" - will not win control of the Senate and may actually lose ground. They will lose their seat in Maine, and I bet they wind up losing Massachusetts as well. Keep an eye on Indiana and Arizona where the GOP has nominated nut jobs. Nevada is a toss-up. The Democrats are going to lose in Nebraska and could lose in Montana and North Dakota. But if they can pick up four seats, they will mitigate their losses there.
At this point, the election is over control of the House. If Democrats can win control of the House, we will be able to back away from the "fiscal cliff" and the sequesters. If not, we're headed to the summer of 2011 on steroids.
So, while the presidential election is in its endgame already, the race for the House is still alive and very, very important.
As I believe Ray Kroc said, "If they're going to drown, put a hose in their mouth."