Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Mitt won the debate. He is now seeing a large bounce from polling late last week. But apparently that bounce dissipated as the days wore on. Thursday and Friday saw GREAT numbers for Romney. Saturday and Sunday, less so.
Still, I think it's clear that Obama burned through his margin of error that he had built in September. I don't think the race is quite a toss-up. We have seen a TON of partisan Republican polling that seemed to coincide with the whole "skewing" argument. I just don't trust Gravis Marketing farther than I can throw them.
We will know better in a week or two how sustained Romney's bounce from the debate was. My guess is that it greatly energized Republicans. I don't think it changed many minds, but I could be wrong.
I think long term it means Obama won't win North Carolina. And the Democrats now probably won't take back the House from a despondent GOP.
That last part stings.