Tuesday, October 23, 2012
What The Hell Happened?
So, we had a fairly snoozerrific Presidential race in September, with Obama sporting roughly a 5 point lead. Then we had Denver. We'll always have Denver.
And for predictable reasons the race tightened. And it seemed to settle roughly into where it was before Obama's noticeable and sustained convention bounce. Romney was able to get his convention bounce out of the first debate.
But since then, I think we've seen two clear debate wins for Obama (three if you include Biden's win). What's interesting is that John Kerry cleaned Bush's clock in the 2004 debates, and that didn't help him. And Obama does not seem to have earned the same sort of bounce that Romney got from his good first debate.
Where does that leave us? Right back where Nate Silver said we would be all along: a close national race with a structural advantage for Obama in the Electoral College.
In most cases, you could argue that the tightening of the race would be a good thing for Democrats, because it will motivate the Democratic GOTV efforts. Before Denver there was already post-election style sniping from Obama's left on drones and some other issues. That's gone for at least two weeks. But liberals are so whiny and cringy and defeatist, you have to wonder if this will dispirit them.
You want to know what I think it looks like right now? Same as it was yesterday. We will see how Romney's milquetoast performance plays among ex-military types in Virginia and Florida, though.