Monday, October 22, 2012
The Race Is Tied, Except It's Not
The national polling is all over the place, but the smart guys in green eye shades say that Obama is probably up a point or two. Basically where he was before the conventions.
He's also pretty clearly got a lead in Ohio that's been stable. Some polling averages have Pennsylvania competitive, but I seem to recall McCain wasting a ton of resources in PA and it wasn't really close. Wisconsin and Nevada also seem to have small but consistent Obama leads.
In other words, if you looked at any one poll, the race is within the margin of error. But when you look at the average of multiple polls, it's hard to escape the idea that Obama is headed for a narrow re-election.
Right now he's winning by about 2 points nationally. He's winning PA, OH, WI, IA and NV. Even if he loses NH, VA, FL and CO, he still wins the Presidency with 277 electoral votes. Personally, I think he will win NH and CO, but VA and FL are toss-ups.
Anyway, tonight will be Mitt's last chance to pin America's foreign policy failings on the words that Obama used and the time that he used them. My guess is that it will be mind-bogglingly stupid.
Also there will be no questions on the global threat of climate change, because there are Muslims to kill, damnit.