Tuesday, November 6, 2012
But that depends on shenanigans being kept to a minimum in Florida and....
Maine - Angus King +1 Dem
Massachusetts - Elizabeth Warren +1 Dem
Connecticut - Chris Murphy
Pennsylvania - Bob Casey
Ohio - Sherrod Brown
Indiana - Joe Donnelly +1 Dem
Virginia - Tim Kaine
Missouri - Claire McCaskill
Wisconsin - Tammy Baldwin
North Dakota - Rick Berg Rep +1
Montana - Jon Tester
New Mexico - Martin Heinrich
Arizona - Jeff Flake
Nevada - Shelly Berkeley Dem +1
The last is my upset pick of the night. If Harry "I'm not a pornstar" Reid can mobilize his machine, Berkeley pulls off the upset
Democrats pick up three seats. But Baldwin could lose and Heitkamp could win, so it could be a net of zero to a gain of five. Arizona isn't out of the equation, either.
(Also note that I'm assuming Angus King caucuses with the Democrats, and I resisted the urge to list Murphy as a Democrat pick up with the ouster of Joe Lieberman.)
Who the hell knows? I say the Democrats pick up 5-10 seats.
Look at the NRO four years ago.
I'll take Nate Silver...