Some people say it's foolish to worry about soulless creatures overtaking the earth and devouring our brains. I say they've already won.
Blog Credo
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
H.L. Mencken
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Prediction
I'm optimistic.
Presidential Election:
Obama 332
Romney 206
But that depends on shenanigans being kept to a minimum in Florida and....
The Senate
Maine - Angus King +1 Dem
Massachusetts - Elizabeth Warren +1 Dem
Connecticut - Chris Murphy
Pennsylvania - Bob Casey
Ohio - Sherrod Brown
Indiana - Joe Donnelly +1 Dem
Virginia - Tim Kaine
Missouri - Claire McCaskill
Wisconsin - Tammy Baldwin
North Dakota - Rick Berg Rep +1
Montana - Jon Tester
New Mexico - Martin Heinrich
Arizona - Jeff Flake
Nevada - Shelly Berkeley Dem +1
The last is my upset pick of the night. If Harry "I'm not a pornstar" Reid can mobilize his machine, Berkeley pulls off the upset
Democrats pick up three seats. But Baldwin could lose and Heitkamp could win, so it could be a net of zero to a gain of five. Arizona isn't out of the equation, either.
(Also note that I'm assuming Angus King caucuses with the Democrats, and I resisted the urge to list Murphy as a Democrat pick up with the ouster of Joe Lieberman.)
The House
Who the hell knows? I say the Democrats pick up 5-10 seats.
Comparison
Look at the NRO four years ago.
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/226223/predicting-tonight/nro-symposium#
I'll take Nate Silver...
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