Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Tuesday, November 6, 2012


I'm optimistic.

Presidential Election:

Obama 332
Romney 206

But that depends on shenanigans being kept to a minimum in Florida and....

The Senate

Maine - Angus King +1 Dem
Massachusetts - Elizabeth Warren +1 Dem
Connecticut - Chris Murphy
Pennsylvania - Bob Casey
Ohio - Sherrod Brown
Indiana - Joe Donnelly +1 Dem
Virginia - Tim Kaine
Missouri - Claire McCaskill
Wisconsin - Tammy Baldwin
North Dakota - Rick Berg Rep +1
Montana - Jon Tester
New Mexico - Martin Heinrich
Arizona - Jeff Flake
Nevada - Shelly Berkeley Dem +1

The last is my upset pick of the night.  If Harry "I'm not a pornstar" Reid can mobilize his machine, Berkeley pulls off the upset

Democrats pick up three seats.  But Baldwin could lose and Heitkamp could win, so it could be a net of zero to a gain of five.  Arizona isn't out of the equation, either.

(Also note that I'm assuming Angus King caucuses with the Democrats, and I resisted the urge to list Murphy as a Democrat pick up with the ouster of Joe Lieberman.)

The House

Who the hell knows?  I say the Democrats pick up 5-10 seats.


Look at the NRO four years ago.

I'll take Nate Silver...

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