August And Everything After

 Remember that time Joe Biden ran for re-election? What was that, five years ago?

When Biden stepped aside, my first worry was "What now?" But Harris and Biden quickly answered that question, passing the torch seamlessly to Harris and avoiding the intraparty bloodbath that the media types were hyping. Then, yesterday, I think she nailed her VP pick: a Happy Warrior with impeccable Dad Vibes who just seems like he wandered into public service because someone asked him to and he said, "Sure, whatever. What could happen?"

It's the Happy Warrior aspect of Harris/Walz that I think is what makes this a great match. They seem genuinely jazzed to be campaigning. Biden simply could not do that. The only way to mask his frailty and stutter was to get angry. Harris and Walz can attack, but with a smile.

Meanwhile, Trump is decompressing in social media and he has a grand total of one campaign stop this week...in Montana. That leaves Vance as the guy to go out and whip up enthusiasm, which is a task so far beyond his skillset as to be laughable. 

Conventional wisdom used to be that campaigns don't really gear up until after Labor Day. With early voting, that seems less true. What's more, the dynamics of this race seem so different, so variable, in ways that were not true before Biden's dropped out. That race was incredibly static, now everything seems up for grab. Harris is all over the Olympics, but I haven't seen any Trump ads. 

What goes underreported is that credible campaign professionals are obviously not a part of Trump's campaign apparatus. Lots of the old school Republican operatives are now working for the Lincoln Project. Others are reasonably skeptical of being paid. Trump is looting his campaign coffers to pay his legal bills. 

Trump's act is old and it lacks the febrile energy of 2016. I really do think that there is a substantial majority of Americans who just want him gone. Not just Democrats, but more than a few Republicans. Hell. Harris has a "Republicans For Harris" group but Trump's own Cabinet won't endorse him.

We learned in 2016 to take absolutely nothing for granted. However, there is a hopeful energy that wasn't even there in 2020 (because we were all at home). People are comparing it to 2008 for good reason.

Long way to go, but I really think we are winning this thing.