The Challenger

 Both Jon Chait and Josh Marshall note that perhaps the singular accomplishment of the Harris campaign over the last month has been to frame Donald Trump as the incumbent and herself as the challenger. This is smart in myriad ways. First, there has been a lot of anti-incumbent mood across the developed democracies since Covid. That sucked and people have been punishing the party in charge during that period. Of course, Trump was in charge for the worst of it, but people had largely memory-holed that, blaming Biden for the slow reopening of 2021 and the global inflation that followed.

Harris's ability to make Trump the incumbent - "We aren't going back" - both reminds people of how chaotic life was under Trump and allows her to focus on HIS decisions during Covid. The very fact that he had been president, was rejected and now wants to return does give him the stink of old news. Only Biden's own status as the incumbent and even older news shielded Trump from that reality. That's why he's apoplectic over Biden dropping out: running against Biden is his only shot at NOT being the incumbent.

Both Marshall and Chait, however, tend to gloss over a key dynamic, even deride it. It absolutely matters that the person setting herself up as the challenger is a woman of color. Most undecided voters are pretty damned shallow. They are not thoughtful people, at least when it comes to politics. If they were rigorous in their thinking, they wouldn't be undecided. Harris - as a woman, as a person of color, as the child of immigrants - is very much NOT an insider. Hillary Clinton was. Joe Biden is. And now Donald Trump is, too. Yes, Harris is Vice President, but precisely because she is not an Old White Dude, she feels like an outsider. That was actually a key to Obama winning states like Indiana in 2008. 

Because she is who she is, this allowed her to focus her campaign message around somewhat conservative tropes like patriotism and border security. Walz helps with this, and reflects that strategy, but she does not have to do the heavy lifting of distancing herself from some past precedents (unburdened by what has been). It's right there in her bio in ways that it wasn't for someone like Hillary Clinton. Wrapping herself in the flag becomes the message about inclusion, whereas when Trump does it, it feels like a shield he wraps around himself.

There is likely to be some weird assed polling about to drop. RFK, Jr. is taking his brain worm and his dead bear cub home with him, as he sulks about not being able to throw the election to Trump. The DNC was a smash hit. There should be a bounce. (There was a panel of those dipshit undecideds and 7 of 8 said they were now ready to vote for Harris.) Kennedy dropping out could help Trump. I saw one poll that had Harris up 8 nationally, another up 6 and another had it tied.

Now the next beat is the debate. I think Harris largely cleans the floor with Trump. She's a lawyer without a speech impediment. Trump's public appearances are a mix between low-energy whomp whomp and the usually whine whine.

There is a long way to go, but the Harris campaign has done it all right so far. I think America is ready to put this malevolent orange cancer behind us.

Excelsior!