We are on the verge of the next big "beat" in the compressed timeline of the 2024 election. We've had enough time for polls to reflect the new dynamic of the race and I agree with Marshall's analysis. Harris has held on to or marginally expanded her leads in the Blue Wall and come within striking distance of the Purple Wall (I guess, you could call it) of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. There is even some thinking she could be closing the margins in North Carolina. Arizona and especially North Carolina are especially salient states for the post-Dobbs landscape, but in states like Georgia and North Carolina could be seeing her reclaim some of the Black vote that (somehow) appeared to be moving towards Trump. Same goes for Detroit and Philadelphia.
We are now a few weeks removed from the attempt on Trump's life, and that story has largely withered away, because the shooter does not seem to have much of a political motive. It was just another sad loner with a gun and a deathwish. Meanwhile, Harris hit the ground running, Biden got the hostages released (and captured the heads of two cartels). Hell, the US is doing well in the Olympic and MAGAts are being weird about THAT.
It's unlikely that the Harris wave continues to grow all the way to November. However, the VP announcement does seem to represent a possible stumbling block. When people were arguing that Biden should drop out, the counterargument was "What then?" We got a lot of bullshit about a Blitz Primary or an open convention. Instead, Harris skillfully maneuvered to end all that in about 48 hours. Instead, we are seeing the feared toxicity surrounding the VP pick.
Basically, the online battle lines are surrounding Shapiro. He was my first choice, because of Pennsylvania's oversized importance in this race. However, there are some legitimate reasons to wonder about how well vetted he is, and there is some of the leftist anti-Semitism cloaked as anti-Zionism swirling around him. Are the Genocide Joe cadre going to vote for Harris if she picks Walz? I have my doubts. But Walz sure seems like a "do no harm" pick and he has real credentials as a member of the House that neither Beshear or Shapiro can match.
So, anyway, it's shitshow online, because people are picking sides and digging in. That's exactly what I feared would happen in the open process to replace Biden.
How Harris lands her VP pick will either create more enthusiasm or perhaps open wounds. That's the next beat. Then we have the convention. I would expect a barnburner speech from Obama, a moving valedictory address from Biden, and then Harris needs to hit her marks in her acceptance speech.
If she exits the convention with solidifying leads in the Blue Walls and marginal leads in the Purple Wall, the next beat would be the debate or debates if they even happen. Trump is backing out of the ABC debate, but Harris could just show up and do a townhall. Free media.
The shoe that I don't think has really dropped yet amongst casual voters is just how diminished Trump is as a candidate. Biden's frailty obscured that, but it should now be the top story for everyone who was hammering Biden over his age.
Trump is low energy. There's a non-zero chance he could be sentenced to prison in September.
People wanted to turn the page, I think, from the old guys. Both of them. I don't think that was fair to Biden who continues to do a pretty good job at doing the actual job. Still, Harris can still tap into the politics of change without having to really abandon any of Biden's popular achievements.
I think there's some room for her to grow, and the next few weeks will see if that's right.
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