The Schism

 When Trump arrived on the scene in 2016, he did get some pushback from the establishment GOP. After the Access Hollywood tape, several people withdrew their endorsements. Then he drew to an inside straight and won. The establishment capitulated to him, at least in public. Privately, they continued to be dismayed at their standard bearer.

As Harris captures more and more enthusiasm, Trump is running a listless, directionless campaign. He is cognitively declining from a low baseline to begin with. A "normal" political party would never have let him get the nomination, but the party elders have either been forced out, silenced or coopted. 

For years, I have felt like the GOP coalition has been untenable. Back in 2012, Karl Rove despaired over the "missing white voters." Trump found them, but alienated the college educated suburban voters in the process.

Now, it looks like the freakshow Right might be starting to break with Trump. A lot of what sunk Clinton in 2016 was the sort of indifferent male voter who wrote in "Harambe" or voted for Trump because they don't understand how politics and legislation works and they just want an "outsider" to shake things up. For some, Trump was a gas, for others an avatar of White Supremacy. They are beginning to realize that their guy is cooked. If they really do turn on him - we've seen Joe Rogan flirt with Kennedy - then that could drive him down towards the low 40s. Perhaps at some point, the dam breaks and people flee to someone like Kennedy or just stay home. Or, hell, maybe Harris benefits from the dynamic Obama did, of being an outsider based on race and, in her case, gender.

Last night, Harris and Walz packed an arena in Phoenix; Trump struggled and failed to fill a smaller venue in Montana.  Why the fuck was he in Montana? Why is he not campaigning?

The funniest thing of all would be that he fears being sentenced to prison for his NY crimes, and flees the country six weeks before election day. It's not like he's really trying to win at this point anyway. He loots the Republican coffers, ties the down ballot candidates to his brand and then flees to Russia to avoid jail time.