Pennsylvania

 If the race is close, and the data are kind of all over the place at the moment, then Pennsylvania is likely the tipping point state. Harris and Democrats are polling pretty well in Wisconsin and Michigan right now, with PA being the weakest of the three Blue Wall states. Josh Marshall shares a correspondence from someone in Trump Country in PA that despairs about the state of the race there.

The writer notes that there seems to be waning enthusiasm for Trump, in the sense of fewer yard signs and flags. This goes to the argument that we've been living in Trumpistan for nine years now, with this guy dominating our discourse. Yet his act really is tired and repetitive. 

Which brings me to my point of optimism going back to when Biden was the candidate. Who has looked at America since November 2020 and decided that even though they voted for Biden in 2020, they want to vote for Trump in 2024? Who looks at January 6th and Dobbs and wants more of that? Who looks at the Arlington travesty and wants more of that?

I have no doubt that Cult 45 is still devoted to this asshole. The question is: Who wants to join that cult who isn't already in it? Where are the new Trump voters? Because there are new Harris voters.

The Harris decision to focus on "We're not going back" and "weird" is playing on exactly this dynamic. Harris needs to win every Biden vote and every Lean Republican voter who was sickened by January 6th. She needs to get the pro-choice voters in places like North Carolina and Florida to the polls. Her decision to campaign in rural Georgia is an interesting sign that she very much wants to soften Trump's support among groups that remain hostile to Putin and authoritarianism.

So, I do think Harris can and will mobilize voters in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh - and their suburbs - but also I do wonder if turnout in those exurban Trump strongholds might be depressed a bit. Even Biden did much better when "likely voter" screens were used. 

He's exhausting. Aren't we ready to move on?