Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Monday, March 26, 2012

More Horserace

Good diary over at Kos breaking down the Electoral College and current polling here.

Basically, if you take states in which Obama has a 10 point lead over Romney, you get to 201 Electoral votes.  In the states where Romney bests Obama by 10, you have 71 EVs.

In that states where Obama has a 5-10 point lead you can add 68 EVs.  That gets you to, gulp, 269 and a tie.

Here's the chart:
Obama lead of 10+ points (201 electoral votes): Washington DC (+86); Rhode Island (+27.8); Hawaii (+27); Maryland (+25.4); Delaware (+25); Vermont (+25); New York (+21.8); Massachusetts (+19.8); California (+19.2); New Mexico (+14.3); Illinois (+14); New Jersey (+12.4); Oregon (+11.3); Connecticut (+11); Minnesota (+11); Maine (+10.8); Washington (+10.8)
Obama lead of 5-10 points (68 electoral votes): Wisconsin (+9.2); Michigan (+9); Virginia (+7.6); Pennsylvania (+6.6); Colorado (+5)
Obama lead of less than 5 points (78 electoral votes): New Hampshire (+3.8); Ohio (+3.2); Iowa (+2.2); Nevada (+2.0); Florida (+1.4); North Carolina (+0.8)
Romney lead of less than 5 points (32 electoral votes): Arizona (+2.6); Missouri (+3.6); Indiana (+4.0)
Romney lead of 5-10 points (88 electoral votes): Tennessee (+5.2); South Carolina (+6.8); Georgia (+7.8); Kentucky (+8.0); Texas (+8.0); Montana (+8.3); North Dakota (+8.7)
Romney lead of 10+ points (71 electoral votes): South Dakota (+11.0); Mississippi (+12.0); Arkansas (+13.2); West Virginia (+13.3); Nebraska (+15.0); Louisiana (+16.0); Kansas (+17.0); Alaska (+21.5); Alabama (+22.0); Idaho (+25.3); Oklahoma (+31.3); Utah (+32.0); Wyoming (+32.3)

The big - and I mean BIG - caveat is that R-Money is currently still groping and fumbling his way to the nomination.  Once he gets there - either during the California primary or in Tampa - the party faithful will rally around him some.  Conservative leaning independents will come home, too.

On the other hand, R-Money is not unknown at this point.  He's been running for office for about 6 years now, for Pete's sake.  And people just don't dig Mitt Romney.  At all.

All the trendlines are favorable to Obama.  As long as unemployment continues to move downwards, as long as there are no more wars, as long as his administration remains the most scandal free in - perhaps - American history, those trendlines will favor him.  But that doesn't mean that things won't tighten up this summer when R-Money finally wraps things up.

But don't forget that Obama is an infinitely better candidate that the Etch-A-Sketch.  McCain seemed to draw even with Obama in August 2008.  How did that turn out?

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