Curious

 So I think we all know the biggest story in American politics right now. Biden's decision to stay in the race is obviously nerve wracking, as I think his decision to step aside for Harris would be. If you're deathly afraid of Trump's return to power, then this two weeks has sucked.

What I find interesting is that we haven't seen a flood of polling. We have a few, and if anything they tell a story of a lost opportunity for Biden in the debate rather than a collapse in support. I felt, prior to the debate, that Biden was winning despite polls showing a statistical tie. Now, I do think he's losing despite polls showing a statistical tie. 

There is obviously the Times/Sienna poll, which has always been rough for Biden, even before the debate. However, there are a bunch more polls that show Biden down by about a point of even slightly ahead. The conventional wisdom is that Biden needs to win by at least two points in the popular vote to overcome the structural advantage that Trump enjoys in the electoral college. 

What's interesting to me, in deliberating over Biden's future, is that Trump's support in a lot of polls seems capped in the low 40s.  That feels right. That's also why I keep coming back to the recent results in Britain and France and how their electoral systems led to the results we saw.

In Britain, the Right splintered and split the vote. In France, the anti-Right united and voted tactically to prevent the Right from winning.

Structurally, I do think that Trump's ceiling is around 44%. He got around 46% in both 2016 and 2020. In the interim we've had January 6th and Dobbs. I don't think he's discovering new voters at this point.

The worry - and it was my worry before the debate - was how many people are going to split off and vote for Brainworms or Cornell West or some other spoiler. The debate was Biden's chance to win over those who won't vote for Trump but might not vote for him. And he failed utterly to do that. 

Would that sliver of the electorate be more enthusiastic about Harris? We aren't talking about Democratic voters. Everyone I know who is appalled by Biden's age will still vote for him. It's that sliver of the electorate that can get him to about 47-48%. 

So, I'm curious why we aren't seeing more public polling. That would seem to be an important set of data points.