I am uncertain how the attempted assassination will impact the election. I think every candidate gets a convention bounce. However, this race has been largely static. There are rumors, though, of internal polling showing the floor falling out under Biden.
That's largely unsurprising, as the overwhelming number of stories about Biden's age are themselves a story. The debate was really bad, because it confirmed everyone's fears about Biden's age. The stories about the debate seem to have thrown gasoline on those concerns. What is sure to be a polling bump for Trump is going to set off all the fire alarms.
Matt Yglesias was not a fan of Kamala Harris, for reasons that go to his "centrist" predilections. He makes the case, today, for her candidacy, and I think there's some merit here. One thing he doesn't say, but I think is true, is that a Harris-Trump matchup might...MIGHT...focus more on the issues that favor Democrats. Yglesias notes that being a former prosecutor was a liability for Harris in the climate of 2020, but it might work in her favor in 2024, as she attempts to moderate her image. Being a prosecutor would also draw a contrast with the convicted felon she is running against.
My issue is that Yglesias sort of waves away concerns about misogyny. (I'm less concerned with racism, actually, since we've already crossed that bridge once.) Hillary Clinton was arguably the most qualified person to ever run for president, yet she lost because "there's something about her I just don't like." That is the bridge Harris must cross. Combined with Dobbs, the memories of the chaos of Trumpistan and the chance to not repeat the mistake of 2016, I think we can be hopeful that the slight edge Harris has over Biden could grow.
Next week would the time to make this move. It would suck the wind out of Trump's shooting/convention bounce and shake the race up in ways that I think it's becoming clear need to happen.
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