The Luckiest Man Alive

 It now looks about 95% certain that the young man who shot Trump was another disaffected loner, bullied at school and looking to commit suicide in a way that would write his name in the history books. In other words, this was not a politically motivated assassination attempt, but rather an act of the same mental illness that leads to school shootings.

The "turn down the temperature" remarks are, of course, accurate. Things have gotten way out of whack. However, Trump and Trumpism represent a unique threat to American governance and civil society. In four years, he could erase over a century of improvements in governance and destroy the framework that America put in place during the Cold War to insure world peace or something close to it.

Now, however, every time a Democrat mentions that Trump does represent a threat, that January 6th was a coup attempt, that Dobbs was an assault on basic rights, they will be accused of raising the temperature. 

Meanwhile, Trump has had one effective legal counsel in his many trials, and that is Judge Aileen Cannon. Her ruling stands in contravention of just about every precedent over the past 30 years. However, I'm sure she feels like the Supreme Court will rule in her favor, should it get that far.

Trump was born into wealth and then proceeded to squander much of it in a lavish playboy lifestyle devoid of substance or merit. When he was near insolvency, he was rescued by Mark Burnett to play a faux business savant on The Apprentice. He then rode a wave of ennui, misogyny and the structural insanity of the Electoral College to a minority win in 2016. Since then, his associates have gone to prison and his party has routinely lost seats in the Congress.

Through all this, he himself has remained, ahem, bulletproof. The New York case seems to hang in the balance.

The real question, of course, is twofold.

- Will the Republicans suddenly stop being MAGA at their convention this week?
- Is negative polarization enough?

If the Republican convention descends into the fever swamps to vengeance and oaths of violence, then I think the race could shift back in the Democrat's direction. If they somehow find message discipline, I think we are screwed. 

A discussion on the merits of policy benefits Democrats. If we enter another "vibes election" we are counting on a WWE showman making a mistake, because Biden (and most Democrats) aren't able to compete with the LOLs that Trump brings to a certain segment of Americans and the promise of retribution to others.

Everything sucks right now. Hopefully, MAGA remains true to what MAGA is and the RNC is a freakshow. Right now, that's the best hope to change the trajectory of the race.