When I saw the image of Trump, blood trickling down his face raising a fist to the crowd, my first thought was: "Fuck. He's going to win." Why I thought this was because there is no logical reason for Trump to even be close to winning since January 6th and Dobbs. My default position is that politics for that critical slice of the electorate that swings back and forth is informed by irrational things, and that picture couldn't have been staged any better from the Authoritarian Populist Playbook.
Then, I did myself a favor and logged off and didn't watch the news. My blood pressure has been high since that fucking debate and I didn't need to doomscroll my way into a heart attack.
After reflection, I think a few things are true.
- This, along with the convention next week, will give Trump a polling bump.
- However, there's equally a chance that next week devolves into "American carnage" and the Cult of Personality around Trump that people will be turned off by. My worry about the convention was that it wouldn't be a freakshow, but I don't see how it can be anything other than one now.
- It's a long way to the election.
Events have certainly conspired against those of us who wish to avoid a second Trump Administration bent on vengeance and suckling at the dark heart of his perpetual grievances. The debate, the debate about the debate and now this. As soon as polls started returning to baseline and giving Biden a shot at winning again (he held the slimmest of edges in 538's model on Friday), something happens to throw everything up in the air.
However...
I'm uncertain how getting shot at helps Trump win over voters who didn't vote for him in 2020. I will say that I'm relieved that the shooter is almost certainly some marginalized young man with incoherent political views and a likely death wish. I am also relieved that more people weren't killed, given the weaponry the man had.
The obvious parallel here is less John F. Kennedy and more any of the school shootings that plague our land. If he was - as it initially appears - someone motivated by a nihilistic vision of his own extinction; if he was is an Adam Lanza with a different target; then the discussions around this could very quickly change.
I was struck by how quickly Democrats all said exactly the right thing about political violence (more on that in another post) and how Republicans want to use this to quash criticism of Trump. I really don't think that will work. Democrats will, likely, go somewhat dark during the convention, unless something really nutso happens worthy of jumping on.
If I was advising Democrats, I would urge them to introduce an Assassination Prevention Bill that would ban AR style weapons. Then, watch as Republicans filibuster it or let it die in the House.
The thing about Trump is that he brings the crazy with him. He is a summoner of dark spirits. I have to wonder if this really helps him, but time will tell.
If, by November, we have returned to the idea that a presidential campaign is a job interview rather than a WWE cage match, I can't see how "getting shot at" is a positive bullet point.
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