Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Saturday, July 13, 2024

Not Sure I Agree Here

 I've long enjoyed Martin Longman's analysis, but I think he's wrong here

He has been one of the commentariat who has taken great umbrage at what he sees as Biden's dishonesty about his health. I'm disappointed in what has transpired but I also don't think Biden is in cognitive decline, which Longman clearly believes. I think Biden is frail, physically, but I can recall seeing him in 2019 in a coffee shop on Nantucket and he looked frail then, too. Stiff legged.

Anyway,  Longman's point seems to be that Biden cannot possibly serve the next four years, based on George Stephanopolous' comment to that effect. What's more, if you believe that Biden is currently suffering from cognitive decline, then the next four years will be simply chaotic as various factions try and determine whether the senile old man can be removed from office.

Now, we know that Reagan was suffering from dementia during a fraught period of the Cold War. We know that FDR was re-elected in 1944 despite being in obviously worse health than Biden is now. JFK was suffering from a whole basketful of illnesses. This is not to say we should recommend that as best practices, but just to note that we have all sorts of ways to compensate if that should come to pass.

What's more - and I keep coming back to this point - if Biden gets re-elected and then it turns out he does have Parkinson's (it can take months to properly diagnose it) - and he becomes physically unable to do the job by the summer of 2025, then Kamala Harris becomes president. If Biden steps aside now, then Kamala Harris becomes the nominee. 

If you're afraid of Biden being unable to complete a second term, then you are afraid of Kamala Harris.  

Biden has made some "show don't tell" improvements over the past week, but he is obviously not out of the woods and away from the braying hounds. However, we are approaching a point where Biden is the nominee and the circular firing squads need to stop. 

What that means in practice is being OK with a potential Harris presidency. If you're not OK with that, please explain why. If it's because "I dunno, there's something about her" I suggest you re-evaluate how you are thinking about women.

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