Iran Again

So, the Iranians have invaded the sovereign territory of a western power, in this case the British Embassy.

Immediately, older bloggers - like Charlie Pierce - felt like it was 1979 again and warned the neo-cons that this is proof of the shallow roots of the Green movement.  That the only thing Iranians hate more than their own government is foreign meddling.

I think that's only half true.  Certainly, Iranians are very nationalistic and very suspicious of foreign intervention.  This was true prior to '79 and it's only gotten "truer".

But today's actions were by a youth arm of the Basij - a sort of thuggish paramilitary group responsible for beating up the Green movement.  It's tough to know if the Basij answer to Ahmadinejad or Khamenei, but they don't speak for the mass of Iranians.  While the mass of Iranians may not love the British, they aren't interested in attacking their embassy.

Also, there are rumors that Khamenei is planning a constitutional change to a parliamentary system.  This would immediately undercut the institutional power of the presidency.  This may be because the next presidential election could become a powder keg.  Better to do away with it.  Much easier to gerrymander districts and over-represent various regime-friendly groups in the national assembly - the Majles - than transparently rig a national election.  It would also undermine Ahmadinejad's political standing, as he is posing a threat to Khamenei.

So the question is: Who sent these kids to the British embassy?  Was Khamenei trying to divert attention from his constitutional changes?  Was Ahmadinejad trying to force a crisis?  Or was this just the actions of a militant group of Basij against a country with a long history of being unpopular in Iran?

What's clear is that somehow, this will be a casus belli for the PNAC group and Obama will be at fault for not doing something that is objectively insane, like starting a land war in Asia.