Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Mittmageddon! Santocalypse!

Well, we will learn something tonight.  Either that or we won't.

We have two more installments of Downcast Abbey tonight, as Mitt and Rick duke it out for Michigan and Arizona.

By all accounts, Michigan will be very close.  R-Money foolishly guaranteed a win there and even a narrow Santorum victory brought about by Democrats ratf**king the GOP primary will still be a terrible blow heading into Super Tuesday.

Romney is supposed to win Arizona with it's large Mormon population, but I can't help feel that Santorum's complete lack of a credible campaign infrastructure cost him an opportunity there.  The social conservatives, including a few GOP leaning Catholic Hispanics that are left there, and the aging culture warriors would seem a natural constituency for Santorum.  True, he's probably within six or seven points of Romney there, but I believe Arizona is a winner-take-all primary.  So even a close second is irrelevant.

Of course, Santorum is surging in Michigan from a combination of cross-over potential and his recent bat-shit insane statements about Jack Kennedy and Obama has a horrible plan to make college affordable.  He could pull a Colorado and surprise people with a win there.  If Romney goes 0-2 tonight, I don't see how he recovers.  I really don't.

Gallup has released some crazy polls recently.  One of them had Ron Paul beating Obama in the general by two points.  I can't help but think that the recent sophistication in polling analysis will make polls like this less credible.  Apparently Gallup is taking a huge sample of GOP voters at a time when the GOP is sinking in popularity.  So far, the most accurate pollster of the primary season has been PPP.  They have Romney by two in Michigan but a real late minute surge of the Frothy One.

Anyway, that appears to be the story for the day.


No comments: